VIII. Atlanta Hawks
Probable Starters:
Trae Young
Kevin Huerter
De’Andre Hunter
Danilo Gallinari
John Collins
Key Role Players:
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela (injured), Onyeka Okongwu
Hotlanta is coming in on fire, smoking the Hornets by 29, and then taking out the Cavs with a fiery second-half performance from Trae Young. Unfortunately, their flame might not burn bright enough up against the next team they play (get it?). For a team that was already not very great on defense (rated just 26th in the league), Capela getting injured was a massive L, and it sounds like he’s going to be out for at least a week. Similar to Chicago, this is a team that needs to drop 120 points or more every night if they want to come out on top. They have a great offense led by supervillain Trae Young, and it looks like John Collins might return in time for this series to give this squad a much-needed boost. Unfortunately, even if Capela comes back earlier than expected, I just don’t think it’ll be enough to get past Miami.
Last 20: 14-6
Record against Miami:1-3
Series against Miami: L (91-115), L (118-124), W (110-108), L (109-113)
VII. Chicago Bulls
Probable Starters:
Coby White
Alex Caruso
Zach LaVine
DeMar DeRozan
Nikola Vucevic
Key Role Players:
Ayo Dosunmo, Javonte Green, Patrick Williams
Chicago has been one of the most exciting teams to watch this season. Though riddled with injuries, the Bulls managed to piece together a solid campaign and made the playoffs for the first time in several years. DeRozan really stepped up into his role as the veteran alpha, and younger guys like Dosunmu and White filled in for Caruso and Ball when they were absent due to injuries. Unfortunately, it seems this team just doesn’t have the same firepower that other contenders have. Their lackluster defense is rated 22nd in the league and their offense is rated 13th, and it seems like every night they just pray that DeMar drops 40. Unfortunately, a slightly above-average offense and a below-average defense get you neither championships nor playoff wins. I can see them maybe squeaking out one W where they catch fire and shoot the lights out, but that’s about it for the Windy City.
Last 20: 7-13
Record against Milwaukee: 0-4
Series against Milwaukee: L (90-94), L (112-118), L (98-126), L (106-126)
VI. Philadelphia 76ers
Probable Starters:
Tyrese Maxey
James Harden
Matisse Thybulle
Tobias Harris
Joel Embiid
Key Role Players:
Georges Niang, Danny Green, Shake Milton
Until Simmons plays, we can’t say the 76ers didn’t win the trade. Before the trade, Philadelphia was averaging 108.5 points per game. Then, for the 21 games in which Harden played, they averaged 117.4 PPG. Getting a good passer on this roster, not to mention one who can actually shoot without getting nightmares, was paramount to propelling this team into championship contention. I’m just not so sure that this is the year for this roster.
There are a few factors that will determine the outcome of this series. The first is the Canadian government. I wouldn’t put it past Trudeau to keep the vaccine requirement for people entering Canada for as long as the Raptors are in the playoffs. Missing Thybulle for away games is a huge blow, especially with the stellar backcourt employed by Toronto. It’s going to be that much more important to secure wins at home now. The second factor is Philly’s scoring options outside of Embiid and Harden. For those games where Harden invariably has a 10 & 10 kind of game, they need Maxey or Harris to step up to the plate and get some buckets. Maxey, while still young, has had a breakout year and has shown his ability to put some points on the board. Since the arrival of Harden, Harris has only eclipsed 20 points three times, so hopefully, he’ll get more comfortable with his role in the lineup.
The main factor, of course, is the Beard himself. Many have begun to raise questions regarding his toughness - not physically, but mentally. Sometimes, he doesn’t seem like a “when the going gets tough, the tough get going” kind of dude. In big moments he can come up flat, especially when calls aren’t going his way. Watching him force his way out of both Houston and Brooklyn within a short period of time when things weren’t going too smoothly was a bit concerning, especially when we idealize our stars and heroes as guys who “get the job done no matter the obstacles”.
Of course, Embiid is a force of nature, and he’s going to get his going up against the likes of Precious Achiuwa and Khem Birch. It’s just very questionable as to whether or not that will be enough to win 4 games given everything else going on with his roster. Either way, this one's going to 7 games.
Last 20: 12-8
Record against Toronto: 1-3
Toronto series: L (109-115), W (114-109), L (88-93), L (114-119)
V. Toronto Raptors
Probable Starters:
Fred VanVleet
Gary Trent Jr
OG Anunoby
Scottie Barnes
Pascal Siakam
Key Role Players:
Precious Achiuwa, Chris Boucher, Khem Birch
I honestly think the Raptors have a very good chance to come out on top in this series, and they’ve even got a shot to make the ECF. What makes the Raps scary is that all 5 of their starters are solid scoring options. Obviously, VanVleet, Trent Jr, and Siakam are the headliners on this squad, but OG Anunoby is also very capable on offense. Though he’s only played 48 games this season, he dropped 20 or more points in 19 of those matchups. The rookie Scottie Barnes has shown star potential since the beginning of the season, so it will be interesting to see how he manages in a playoff environment. Toronto plays good, fundamental defense, and guys like Achiuwa, Siakam, and Anunoby can guard multiple positions and force difficult possessions. I expect they’ll give Harden a run for his money and force the ball into Maxey’s and Harris’s hands.
Last 20: 14-6
Record against Philadelphia: 3-1
Philadelphia series: W (115-109), L (109-114), W (93-88), W (119-114)
IV. Boston Celtics
Probable Starters:
Marcus Smart
Jaylen Brown
Jayson Tatum
Grant Williams
Al Horford
Key Role Players:
Dennis Schroder, Derrick White, Josh Richardson
The Celtics are looking to take revenge after suffering a 4-1 beating last year by the KD-Kyrie-Harden big three. This year looks a little bit different though. Boston is pulling up to the playoffs hot, winning 15 of their last 20. For the regular season, they have the 2nd best defensive rating and the 7th best offensive rating in the league. Even though the C’s are limiting opponents to 104.5 ppg, they’ll need every bit of help they can get against a ferocious Brooklyn offense. Although some signs point to Robert Williams returning at some point during the first round, the question is when, and at what percent he can play. In the meantime, they’ll have to rely on an aging Al Horford and Daniel Theis to make up for his production. This is going to be a tough series, and Brown and Tatum are going to need to bring it every night if they want revenge against Kyrie and the Nets. I’m calling this one goes to 7 games, but Brooklyn pulls it out.
Last 20: 15-5
Record against Brooklyn: 3-1
Brooklyn series: L (104-123), W (126-91), W (129-106), W (126-120)
III. Miami Heat
Probable Starters:
Kyle Lowry
Jimmy Butler
Duncan Robinson
PJ Tucker
Bam Adebayo
Key Role Players:
Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent, Victor Oladipo, Max Strus
Miami is probably the deepest squad in the East - this is the kind of team we might see rotate through 10 players in a playoff game. Due to injuries throughout the year, we’ve seen players like Gabe Vincent, Maxwell Strus, and Caleb Martin step up and play above their contracts to keep the Heat atop the conference. While they lack a traditional iso-ball star, Adebayo and Herro have developed into more confident and consistent offensive players who can power this group into championship contention.
They get the job done on offense, but their defense is what really gives them a competitive advantage. They’re 4th best in the NBA at both opponent points per game at 105.6 and forced turnovers at 15 per game. The Heatles are also number one in the league at defending the three, limiting opposing shooters to a measly 33.9% from downtown. After a quick and clean takedown of Atlanta, we’re going to watch this squad give opposing stars fits, whether it be Embiid, Giannis, KD, or VanVleet. I’m calling at least an ECF appearance for the 305.
Last 20: 12-8
Record against Atlanta: 3-1
Atlanta series: W (115-91), W (124-118), L (108-110), W (113-109)
II. Brooklyn Nets
Probable Starters:
Kyrie Irving
Seth Curry
Kevin Durant
Bruce Brown
Andre Drummond
Key Role Players:
Patty Mills, Goran Dragic, Nic Claxton
While this team has suffered all season long from injuries and locker room issues, we finally saw the greatness that this team is destined for towards the end of the season. If Kyrie and KD are on, this is the most dangerous team in the NBA. It will be interesting to see how Simmons fits into this lineup, but to be honest I’m not too concerned considering the shooters they can surround him with. Goran Dragic and Seth Curry have been great additions to this already stacked offense and give Brooklyn an even greater plethora of scoring options.
The two biggest concerns with this group will be chemistry - only four players have started more than 40 games for this team: Kevin Durant, Patty Mills, Bruce Brown, and James Harden - and defense. Their defensive rating is 19th in the NBA, and while it might be a cliche, defense does win championships. You just can’t go into every game expecting it to be a shootout and come out on top every time. I think Boston’s defense is going to be a huge reality check for this squad, whether they win the series or not.
Last 20: 13-7
Record against Boston: 1-3
Boston series: W (123-104), L (91-126), L (106-129), L (120-126)
I. Milwaukee Bucks
Probable Starters:
Jrue Holiday
Wesley Matthews
Khris Middleton
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Brook Lopez
Key Role Players:
Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton
The defending champs have changed little to their winning formula. They score the 3rd most points per game in the NBA at 115.5 and average the second-most rebounds per game at 46.7 (first in the East). They play a physical game and if they were repeat champs I wouldn’t be too surprised. The big question will be whether or not they can keep that championship mettle and hold opposing stars in check. The Bulls should be a cakewalk in the first round - I think the Deer District can get their brooms ready. Their biggest challenge will come in the second round, as they’ll play the winner of Boston and Brooklyn. If they can beat either of those two teams, odds are they get the chance to go back-to-back.
Last 20: 16-4
Record against Chicago: 4-0
Chicago series: W (94-90), W (118-112), W (126-98), W (126-106)
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