The ongoing Ben Simmons saga needs no introduction-that is, unless you’ve been living under a rock the past six months. Ok, just in case you are related to Sir Patrick Star, here’s a quick summary:
The “Pass” late in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Atlanta Hawks:
Doc Rivers giving a vote of confidence to his young superstar following the Sixers playoff game 7 loss:
Naturally, following these events, Simmons found it in his best interest to request a trade from the Sixers. Ok, you can see where he is coming from. His coach just publicly left it up in the air whether he is a good enough piece to take them to the next level. Most, if not all, superstars- and yes, Ben Simmons is still a superstar regardless of his playoff shortcomings- would do the same. What happened after the trade request is where things started to get a little odd. Simmons is on a max contract with the Sixers through the 2024-2025 season after signing a five year, $177.2 million deal in 2019. The deal was signed at a time where Ben had already established himself as an All NBA caliber player, with the hope from the Sixers side being that Ben would continue to work on his outside shooting to further ascend into a top 10 player in the league. Following the Sixers playoff exit, Simmons’s trade value must have been at an all time low. The team seemed ready to move on from him and Simmons returned the favor by requesting a move. These two ingredients don’t add up to being a great trade asset, even though Simmons’s star power can not be denied. So, in the offseason, we entered this cycle of names being floated around as possible returns for Simmons and then the inevitable report probably coming from the Sixers brass that said those players/picks were not enough for Simmons. NBA followers began to wonder what the Sixers’ plan was, citing their lack of leverage in making a move. Eventually, we hit the start of training camp with Simmons still remaining in a Sixers uniform. Not only that, but according to GM Daryl Morey, he wasn’t even close to being moved. Reports had it that Morey was looking for a top 25 player around the NBA to swap Simmons for, and would not budge on his asking price. Ok. The shoe dropped after the start of training camp. Simmons was refusing to report to the Sixers, and was willing to accept team fines until the team found a suitable partner to move him to. Over halfway through the season and rapidly approaching the trade deadline, that is essentially where we are today. Simmons has still not reported to the Sixers, the Sixers won’t budge on their asking price, and Joel Embiid is having an MVP caliber season with very little help from his comrades (big thanks to you, Tobias). Let’s talk about leverage. As stated before, when the offseason first hit, surely teams were trying to pounce on Simmons for cheap, knowing that the Sixers had sort of painted themselves into a corner following the postseason exit and public disparaging of Simmons. Morey held strong. Season comes along, teams are probably thinking along the same lines. Now there are regular season games to be played, surely the Sixers would move Simmons now. Simmons not playing is worse than getting something back, right? Morey held strong.
Here we are before the deadline, and I’m really starting to see the Sixers plan shape into form. If you kept up with the NBA on the internet, you’d think Ben Simmons was some trash player that is lucky to not be playing in China. NBA teams are smarter than this. Ben Simmons is still one hell of an asset. He’s a perennial DPOY candidate, an otherworldly passer, and can finish strong near the hoop. Sure, he hasn’t proved that he can take that next step in the playoffs, but you have to make the playoffs first. Simmons without a doubt would be a huge contributor to any team trying to make the playoffs. Which is why I think now, approaching the trade deadline, is the time to strike.
With the recent changes to the NBA playoff picture with the play-in games for teams that are seeded 7-10, more teams have a chance to fight for the playoffs than ever before. Teams WANT to make the playoffs (sorry Sam Hinkie). You sell more tickets when you have playoff games, increasing your revenue and bottom line. You get your players experience playing in big games, and that experience could play a role in future big games. You no longer necessarily get a higher pick if you tank games, so the positive incentives of winning and competing easily outweigh the alternative. With more teams fighting to get a postseason berth, that leverage gets an uptick in favor of GM Daryl Morey. Now, does this mean a team will fulfill the ask of a top 25 NBA player in return for Simmons? Probably not, especially since the assumption here is that the team looking to acquire Simmons will be trying to push for the playoffs. BUT THAT IS OKAY. Get back what you can, whether that be a solid cheap young player or two and a pick, and focus your efforts on going all in next year, because this team is really close with how dominant Embiid has been. Something that has been largely ignored by NBA media is the fact that moving Simmons can free up a lot of cap space (if they can make the money work with the right expiring deals) for the Sixers to sign another big player this offseason. Remember that James Harden turned down a lucrative extension with the Nets in October, and you know Morey has that possible reunion simmering in the back of his mind. The package now should be better than whatever packages Morey has received so far. But I still think there is a chance Morey tries to GM in the 4th dimension and hold Simmons all the way until the offseason where he can try and execute some sort of sign and trade. It feels like Simmons may be starting to fear this madlad outcome with his doubling (tripling? quadrupling?) down in a recent report. I fear Morey will be overplaying his hand if he decides to go that route, but we’ll see. It also wouldn’t be a good look within the Sixers organization to completely throw away this year of Embiid’s prime. I don’t think the Sixers can acquire any more leverage than they have now in an already difficult situation. Refer to my shoddy drawing below of leverage versus time in the Sixers timeline. The Sixers got through the really hard parts of having to hold Simmons through the mockery of the NBA community, now it’s time to make a move and get that man Joel Embiid some help!
Comments