This is going to be a good one. This Super Bowl features the number one rated offense going up against the number one rated defense (per ProFootballFocus). Both of these teams definitely earned their invitation to the Grand Canyon State from their respective conferences, although one had a little bit of an easier path to get here, but more on that to come. Did you know Jason Kelce and Travis Kelce are brothers? Anyways, enough small talk, I’ll jump right into it.
The Four Factors:
Mickey Mouse NFC Championship
Relax Philadelphia, I’m not saying the Eagles aren’t good. But you can’t look me in the eye and tell me you’ve beaten anyone noteworthy. Who did you beat? You defeated the Vikings in Week 2, but let’s be real, those guys got whooped by Daniel Jones and the Giants in the playoffs - need I say more? You beat the Jags in Week 4, a playoff team, though they didn’t start looking like a playoff team until after their bye in Week 12. You got a solid win over Dallas in Week 6, BUT you lost to them in a rematch Week 16. “But we had Gardner Minshew starting” - I’d accept that excuse if your defense didn’t give up 40 points in that match. But surely you played some real teams in the playoffs? Again, I don’t consider a win over a team starting Daniel Jones to be impressive. I also don’t find it impressive to beat a team after you injure their 3rd string AND 4th string quarterback and thereafter they’re physically incapable of throwing a pass for three quarters of the game. It’s not the Eagles' fault their schedule was favorable, but when you talk about tiers of teams, they just didn’t play and beat anyone in the S tier. But by all metrics, they’re a good team - just because Gonzaga plays in the WCC doesn’t mean they can’t win the National Championship. Philly could absolutely roll up to Glendale, Arizona this Sunday and bulldoze through Kansas City - but I’ll believe it when I see it.
Chiefs’ Defense
If there’s a chink in the armor for KC this is it. Kansas City’s run defense is 18th in the league per ProFootballFocus and they allow 4.4 yards per rush attempt, which ranks 16th. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles were 5th in rushing yards this season and #1 in rushing touchdowns. The Eagles' three-headed dragon in the backfield - Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott - each average above 4 yards per carry, and QB Jalen Hurts can hurt you with his legs too - he racked up 760 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground alone this year. If you’re Kansas City, you need to force Hurts to air it out. I’m not saying he can’t throw, but he’s never had a game throwing above 400 yards in his NFL career. As a matter of fact, in 34 career starts, he’s only thrown above 300 yards eight times.
The Better Team
If you look at every positional group (defensive backs, running backs, offensive line, etc), I think the Eagles have a superior overall group of players in every group except for quarterback and tight end. The secondaries for each team are relatively similar in terms of talent. Otherwise, Philadelphia has a more complete team, and I think that’s why Vegas has chosen them to win - it’s a more conservative bet. But having the better QB is a significant advantage - especially because we’re not talking about a difference between say Matt Ryan and Justin Herbert - we’re talking about Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. And this segues into my next factor a little bit, but I think Vegas might’ve forgotten a little bit who Patrick Mahomes is, or maybe they're factoring the ankle injury he suffered against Jacksonville into the equation. But we all watched the Cincinnati AFC Championship game. There might’ve been a small limp in his step, but make no mistake - he still won them that game with his legs. Mahomes tallied 326 passing yards, 2 tuddies, and no picks on a sprained ankle. That’s a very good day for Hurts if he racks up those stats in any game. I guess we’ll see what Nick Sirianni and Jonathan Gannon throw at them on Sunday. Perhaps you could argue that Kansas City hasn’t seen the likes of Philly’s defense yet this year, though they did drop 44 on the Niners.
QB Mentalities
Perhaps you’ve been sensing some bias in these factors and the commentary. I can’t say I like the Eagles, but that just comes with the territory - I’m a Washington fan. But just to be clear, I am not a Jalen Hurts hater. I was a fan of his at Alabama, and seeing him get subbed out of that College National Championship game at halftime hurt a little (no pun intended). I thought it was an incredible redemption story when he saw the writing on the wall and transferred to Oklahoma and led them to a 12-2 record. Stories like that are what make sports so incredible. Since he was drafted by the Eagles, things have been going pretty well all things considered, but you didn’t see him partying like Kirk Cousins and getting overly excited over small wins. He knows this is an opportunity to show why he belongs in the NFL long-term. Hurts has everything to prove in this game, and that’s an advantage when you can channel that energy.
Now on the other sideline, there’s another guy with a chip on his shoulder. Patrick Mahomes threw for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns this season, and no one even raised an eyebrow. Of course, he’s in the MVP conversation, but at this point, this is an expectation from him. He won an MVP his first year starting, a Super Bowl in his second year, and since then? A bad loss to Tom Brady in the Super Bowl, and a close loss to Joe Burrow and the Bengals last year in the AFC Championship. He’s graduated out of the MVP conversation and into the “Super Bowl or bust” conservation and he knows it. Off the top of my head, I have no idea how many MVPs Joe Montana and Tom Brady have - but I do know they have 4 and 7 rings, respectively. He’s probably the most talented QB I’ve ever seen, but what does that mean in the greater picture? As crazy as it sounds, Mahomes still has a lot to prove, and if he’s half as competitive as he looks out on the field, I know he wants to earn his place amongst the all-time greats.
So who wants it more? We’ll find out Sunday. And if there was any doubt, I’m taking Kansas City in this one.
Prediction: Chiefs win 27-24
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