Quinn's Six Keys to SB LVI

After a riveting NFL playoffs with a crazy amount of game-winning field goals and upsets, we have the two teams set to face off on February 13th. The 4th-seed Bengals will play the 4th-seed Rams in the lowest-seeded matchup in Super Bowl history. Interestingly enough, on paper, the Rams seem closer to a one-seed, and the Bengals seem closer to a just-missed-the-playoffs seed. No disrespect to Joe Shiesty and crew, but I don’t think anyone outside of Cincinnati could’ve called this one.

Let’s take a look at each team’s path to get here:

Burrow and the Bengals are cooking right now. Starting in the Wildcard game, despite getting knocked around by the Raiders’ D-line, the Bengals came out on top 26-19. They then played a tough Tennessee defense in the Divisional round and won on a game-winning field goal 19-16. The game was really the Titans’ to lose, but a win is a win come playoffs.

Then came the big dogs: Mahomie and the Chiefs. After what looked like a blowout heading into halftime, Cincinnati flicked some kind of switch and outscored the Chiefs’ offense 17-3 through the next two quarters and OT. They even got the stop after KC won the coin toss! Shooter MacPherson has been the man all postseason long, and he kept up his hot streak here as he booted the game-winner to send Cincinnati to its first Super Bowl appearance since 1989.

For the Rams, this Super Bowl has been theirs to lose from the get-go. With all of their additions over the past year, Les Snead crafted an incredibly well-rounded roster and handed Stafford the keys. They’ve been the more talented team in every matchup this postseason, and the Super Bowl will be no exception. They clobbered the Cardinals in the Wildcard game 34-11, and then they went to Tampa Bay for the Divisional.

After going up 27-3 against the defending champs, the Rams got extremely sloppy and allowed Brady to even it up at 27. Then, with 28 seconds left in the game, Stafford hit up his most reliable receiver, Kupp, for 44 yards, putting them into field goal range and paving the way for their kicker, Gay, to win the game.

In the NFC Championship, they would face off against the 49ers, who had beaten them twice in the regular season. While their offense could never quite get in a groove, their defense, led by Aaron Donald and Von Miller, more than made up for it. The Niners led most of the game, but the defense kept San Francisco from scoring in the fourth quarter, making way for the offense to put up 13 points and win the game 20-17. Congrats Stan Kroenke, you get to play the Superbowl at home in your new $5.5 billion stadium.

All that said, here are six things to watch for and expect in Sunday’s game:

1. It’s Miller (and Donald) Time

Joe Burrow better wear an extra set of pads to this one. His line let him get sacked 9 times by the Titans’ defense, and while Tennessee's front seven is nothing to scoff at, Von Miller and Aaron Donald are on another level. Since 2015, Aaron Donald has been the highest-rated defensive tackle in the NFL every year (per Pro Football Focus), terrorizing opposing offensive lines. Although the 32-year-old Miller had an off-year last season, he came to this roster and made an instant impact, recording five sacks over eight games, and is the 4th rated edge defender according to Pro Football Focus. When accounting for the fact that the Rams have the 8th worst pass-blocking in the league, you begin to worry for Burrow’s well-being come Sunday.

2. Chase is on the Case

Apparently, this is Tony Romo’s new favorite phrase. Silly as it might sound, you’d probably say it too if you watched both Ja’Marr Chase and Paw Patrol at any point in this past year. Chase exploded in his rookie season, hauling in 1455 yards and 13 touchdowns. He even broke a few records along the way, including most receiving yards in a game by a rookie (266) and most receiving yards in a playoff game by a rookie (279), plus he’s also the youngest player with multiple 100+ receiving yard games in the postseason. While they did draft him over a premier offensive lineman, I don’t think the front office is having any regrets considering the bright future the Bengals have with Joe and Ja’Marr. His matchup with Jalen Ramsey will be a major factor in whether or not the Bengals can score enough points to keep up with the Rams’ high-octane offense.

3. Stafford’s Goofs

Stafford’s biggest flaw this season has probably been his interceptions. Any single turnover isn’t too impactful when you’re not on a playoff team (ahem Lions), but when every game is do or die, each possession is crucial. Stafford led the league this year with 17 interceptions, four of which were pick-6’s. In the last game against the 49ers, he had one early pick in the red zone, and then almost had another in the fourth quarter. He actually threw a perfect pass to safety Jaquiski Tartt, but Tartt somehow dropped it - a play which would’ve likely sealed the deal for San Francisco. Obviously, this team needs to take care of the ball better. We saw multiple turnovers in the Divisional game against the Buccaneers too that nearly cost them that game. Conversely, if you’re the Bengals, you NEED to capitalize on these mistakes. There won’t be a whole lot of margin for error if Cincinnati wants to win this one, so they need to make use of every chance they’re afforded.

4. Bengals D Needs to Step Up

While the Bengals' defense was ranked 16th for the regular season according to Pro Football Focus, they came in and executed against an elite Chiefs offense in the second half of the AFC Championship. After taking a beating in the first half, they switched up their game plan and several defenders made huge plays. Hubbard and Hendrickson began wreaking havoc in the backfield, B.J. Hill had that interception (Mahomes’ first in an AFC Championship), and Vonn Bell had the game-winning pick in OT after perfect coverage from Norman Bates III. This was a fantastic all-around effort from the Bengals, but they’re going to need to bring that same energy for another 48 minutes of play if they’re going to stand a chance against this star-studded offense.

5. This one’s a home game….right?

For the second consecutive year (and for only the second time in Super Bowl history), one of the competing teams will be playing at home. However, this may not give Rams the advantage that other teams might enjoy - this is because the Rams do not have a great fan base within the LA area. They left for St. Louis for about 20 years before returning back to Los Angeles, so it’s only natural that fans would flock to one of the three other California teams during that long hiatus. In the NFC Championship against the 49ers last week, it is estimated that there were actually more Niners fans than Rams fans at SoFi Stadium. That said, I’m not so sure that Cincinnati fans are going to make it out to the West Coast in the same numbers as Niners fans and embarrass the Rams franchise again, but the Bengals fan base definitely seems more excited to be here.

6. The Underdog Effect

It’s completely uncontroversial to say that the Bengals shouldn’t be here. They have an average defense and a below-average offensive line, they narrowly won their own division, they were 5-4 at home, and during the regular season suffered losses to the Bears, the Jets, and the Browns. Come playoffs, after barely edging out the Raiders, they went on to beat the first-seeded Titans, and then came back to win the AFC Championship after being down 21-3 to the NFL’s next dynasty, the Chiefs. If I hadn’t watched these past three games, I wouldn’t give Cincinnati a snowball’s chance in hell to take this thing. Everyone’s luck runs out at some point. But after witnessing the resilience and the tenacity of this team and the spirit with which they’ve been fighting, I think they just might do it. After all, it is the year of the Tiger.

Final prediction: 33-30 Bengals