Tier one: "The Favorites"
1. Phoenix Suns
The Suns are the most complete team in the entire league, simple as that. With the season they have had, it is difficult to imagine any team winning 4 out of 7 games against them. Something that has stood out to me all season is how deep this team is. The second unit is more than solid, led by guys like Cam Payne, Cameron Johnson, Javale McGee, and Torrey Craig, and I expect this unit to generally outperform other benches or hang in there when giving the starters a breather. Benches are an underrated commodity come playoff time. Remember how the Lebron led Cavs would look when their bench picked up some minutes? Book (lol) a ticket for this year’s Suns to the NBA finals, because that’s where they will be in a couple weeks.
Thing to keep an eye out for: Will CP3 finally have a playoff run where he is fully healthy the entire way?
2. Golden State Warriors
If there’s any team that can hang with the Suns, it is going to be the Warriors, a veteran team with a boatload of playoff experience and titles. It would be foolish to count them out given their history. Steph Curry looks to be healthy going into game 1 of the first round this weekend. I am not worried about Curry “finding a rhythm”- remember the other time he came back from injury in the playoffs? Portland game 4 in 2016. Legendary performance. We know Jordan Poole has emerged as a dynamic scorer for the second unit. Side note, Poole is my most improved player of the 2021-2022 NBA season. Curry, Klay, Dray, Iggy, and now Poole? The Warriors may have a renaissance this postseason.
Thing(s) to keep an eye out for:
- Poole is an amazing scorer for the second unit, and he will need to be all postseason. The Warriors have no other trustworthy scorers on that unit in my opinion, and if Poole is off, those bench minutes could be a disaster for the Dubs.
- Speaking of Poole, I will be curious to see how Kerr tries to integrate him into the late game lineups now that Curry is back. Poole is one of the best players on the team, so he should be out there, but running a lineup of Poole, Curry, Klay, Dray… and Wiggins (?) may be taking small ball too far, even for Kerr.
- Klay heated up shooting the ball at the end of the season, but he has had some scary bad performances this season plagued with bad shot selection. Which version of Klay will we get this postseason?
I should mention that I feel there is a significant gap between the top two teams (Suns and Warriors) and the next tier of teams as far as title hopes go.
Tier two: "I don't know what to do with Memphis but they are good"
3. Memphis Grizzlies
It is strange, I have watched Memphis play in some big games this season, and they have impressed me every time with their swagger and poise. And yet, I couldn’t wrap my head around placing them in tier one. Probably still won’t until they hoist the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy and prove me wrong. I think I can attribute it to this: playoffs are hugely dependent on stars, and the Grizzlies only have one. In the modern day NBA, one star and a bunch of good-great role players (and don’t get me wrong, I love me some Desmond Bane, Brooks, JJJ, and Steven Adams) just is not enough to take you to the promised land. And here comes the hot take: Grizzlies lose in round 1 to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Thing to keep an eye out for:
- Will Desmond Bane continue to be a strong #2 for Ja in the playoffs? Because they are going to need him to be.
Again, I feel like there is a gap between tier two, which just consisted of Memphis, and tier three.
Tier three: "Can go on a title run if everything goes right"
4. Dallas Mavericks
I was going to put Dallas in tier two with Memphis (still as team #4) , but the uncertainty regarding Luka’s calf injury forced me to have them as the top team in tier three. The Mavs will only go as far as Luka can take them. The addition of Spencer Dinwiddie, finally another reliable ball handler to go along with Luka and Jalen Brunson, has brought the Mavs to a higher level of play following the deadline. Really, the Mavs have a chance this year for a deep playoff run, but it’s just so hard to say until we get more info on Luka. They need to hang in there vs the Jazz until he returns, hopefully sooner rather than later. If Luka is back before game 4 against the Jazz, consider the Mavs the second team in tier two.
Thing(s) to look out for:
- Luka’s health.
- Dorian Finney-Smith as a defensive stopper
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Ok, here is our first major surprise of the rankings. Yes, I think Minnesota is a threat. Are they a championship threat? Eh, probably not. However, I believe they can make some noise this postseason. Minnesota has the formula for a deep playoff run: two stars in KAT and Ant, surrounded by some nice auxiliary pieces in D-Lo, Pat Bev, Malik Beasley (who really turned his season around after a poor start), and McDaniels/Vanderbilt. KAT had a complete choke job of a performance in the play-in game versus the Clippers and the Wolves still found a way to win. They have the momentum on hand after an emotional win.
Things to look out for:
- Anthony Edwards needs to be consistent. He has had too many stinker games this season with high volume and low efficiency. This is probably the #1 key for the Wolves (I am assuming KAT will bounce back after the Clips game and that was just a one time thing)
- Is the defensive prowess of McDaniels/Vanderbilt worth the black hole on offense? Does Chris Finch even have another option?
- Can D-Lo play like he did against the Clippers? Raises the ceiling of the team significantly if he can continue
6. Utah Jazz
I almost put Utah in tier 4, but then I remembered how elite Donavan Mitchell has been in the playoffs in his young career, so I squeezed them into tier 3. The Jazz have been blowing 4th quarter leads like crazy the past month or so, but here is what I will say. You have to get big leads in order to be able to blow them. They have the ability to take big leads because they can play well. Utah can beat the Mavs with Luka. They just need to execute. This team is hard to project, but I can’t see them ever getting run off the floor in a series. Whatever that means.
Things to look out for:
How will the Jazz adjust to a 5 out offense where Gobert can no longer be the elite help side force that he is accustomed to playing during the regular season? Jazz perimeter defenders need to step up if Gobert is away from the rim.
Tier four: "The first round exits but strong futures"
7. Denver Nuggets
No knock against Jokic and the Nuggets, but there just isn’t enough oomph without Murray and MPJ. Jokic will undoubtedly ball out, providing us affirmation to his second consecutive MVP, but I see a fairly quick exit to the Warriors in round one. Nuggets still have a strong future when those guys return from injury.
Thing to look out for: Bones Hyland is a fun player and great name!
8. New Orleans Pelicans
LET ZION PLAY!! The Pelicans are a nice story this season, rebounding to get the 8 seed after a 3-16 start to the season, but they will also get quickly bounced by Phoenix in round one. Only thing that could change that (honestly wouldn’t affect the final outcome of the series) and make the series interesting is a Zion return. Zion’s camp seems to be leaking that he wants to play (why else post a video of him doing 360 dunks pregame) and making it seem like the Pelicans medical staff is not signing off, but that could just be a PR stunt. I don’t expect Zion to make a return this series, but oh boy, that sure would be fun. Either way, the Pelicans have a really strong core going into next season, assuming Zion eventually plays basketball again.
Thing to look out for: Willie Green is an up and coming great coach.
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